Now I will be considering how you measure value both pre-game and post-game.
Don’t measure your betting success based on win/loss
Although this statement sounds ridiculous, if you are looking to create long-term make money from แทงบอลออนไลน์, you need to be taking value from the bookmaker.
So, after placing a bet, how can you relax on your couch before the game and think, “nice, I recently placed a benefit bet!”
Well, you need to have a benchmark that you can compare against, and for sports bettors, that’s called the closing line, a.k.a. the last price that was offered milli-seconds before kick-off.
Why? As the closing price takes under consideration every bit of information, the industry needs to offer. Whether that function as the crowd’s thoughts, a master sports bettors’ opinion, or the career of a betting syndicate. Additionally, it considers all the news surrounding a game title (e.g., Paul Pogba coming back from injury or Kevin de Bruyne missing the game through sickness).
A good example of beating the closing line could be if you bet on Manchester United to win at 1.70 in odds, and by the time of kick-off, their price had dropped to 1.60 in odds.
Just how do I beat the closing line? And which one should I beat?
Pinnacle’s closing line is the cost you ought to be trying to beat as. Generally, they have the absolute most liquidity in the market as they don’t limit winning players. Pinnacle’s closing line is what individuals reference since the ‘true odds of a sports game.
Note: Although Pinnacle’s costs are sharper than all bookmakers of all occasions, they still take a margin on the odds. Generally, it’s around the 2% mark, while for soft bookmakers, it’s around 5-10%. So that you do not just need to beat Pinnacle’s closing line, you need to be Pinnacle’s margin-free closing line.
A vital aspect in beating the closing price is betting as near to kick-off as possible. We recommend placing your bets between 0-8 hours before kick-off. If you should be placing a bet that is more than Pinnacle’s current price (0-8 hours before kick-off), you’re more than likely going to beat the line come kick-off.
The nearer to kick-off you place your bet, the better because the longer you wait – the more liquidity there’s in the market, which equals more information.
Like I stated earlier if you’re looking to create a long-term make money from sports betting, stop considering whether your bet won or lost following a game, see if you beat the margin-free closing line.
It is the best measuring stick you can use to judge whether your betting strategy is working since it doesn’t consider the variant outcomes that sport frequently produces.