Anyone can visit a sports bookmaker and put a bet down on the favorite football team; it will take very little analysis or แทงบอลออนไลน์ strategy. However, on the length of a season, it doesn’t make financial sense to blindly back your chosen team simply because they’re playing. Instead, try to get at grips with the premise of ‘value. ‘
You can work out a team’s value for just about any given match by following this technique:
- Estimate, as a portion, everything you think the odds are of a group winning.
- Find the best decimal price for that team to win (decimals are easier than fractions as it pertains to the maths).
- Multiply the percentage you’ve estimated with the decimal price.
- Any result of 1.00 or greater means the team has value, and you should look at a bet.
Spotting Value in Practice
Let’s look at a higher profile example – the 2020 FA Cup final between Chelsea and Arsenal. Paddy Power offered Chelsea at 10/11, and Ladbrokes had them at 8/10. On the other hand, they had underdogs Arsenal to win at 7/2 and 15/4, respectively.
Lots of inexperienced punters might have viewed these odds and thought twice about backing Arsenal. However, others might have seen a window of opportunity if we take the best odds offered for an Arsenal win, the 15/4 at Ladbrokes, which converts to 4.75. At that price, you estimate that Arsenal has a 22% possibility of winning the overall game to get some value: 0.22 x 4.75 = 1.05.
This is the exact carbon copy of Arsenal winning the overall game only once if it was played five times over. Some Chelsea fans may have agreed with this particular assessment; they certainly were favorites to lift the trophy. However, Arsenal fans may have looked over their side’s well-earned invest the final, having beaten previous holders Manchester City in the semi-final.
Using Mathematics to Estimate Value
Although finding an ideal bet (i.e., the main one with value) should often be the target, you have to know where to appear and, importantly, what you’re looking for. It’s no good understanding the idea of value and being unsure of where to apply it. To this end, you can use an enhanced football betting strategy known as Poisson Distribution.
In simple terms, Poisson Distribution is just a way of quantifying how likely random occurrences will be over a fixed quantity of time. Like, knowing that Arsenal averages 1.5 goals per game, you can use a distribution formula to predict how likely they’re to score XX goals in a specific scenario. Before you try this, you have to know a team’s attack strength and defense strength.
To ascertain how strong a team’s attack rating is, you need to establish the common quantity of goals scored per team (home and away). To obtain the averages, you divide the number of goals scored (home) by the number of games in a season. To obtain the away goals average, you do the same thing.